Saturday, June 16, 2012

Desperation


President Obama is currently in desperation mode. Rather than lead the country, everything he is doing is political. Now I understand the President has to run a campaign for his last election ever but what he is doing politically today is ruining the country for tomorrow. The administration has leaked classified information to make the President look strong on Foreign policy. The Administration sent out Biden to say he was personally for Gay marriage rights forcing Obama to evolve. Now we have Obama saying he won't deport illegal aliens. All of these are political calculations intended for one purpose only; Get Obama re-elected. Let's take the immunity issue. We all know Obama is desperate to maintain or even increase his share of the Hispanic vote. This immunity really came out of no where. It was a surprise to everyone when it was announced. It came on the heels of his latest recycled economic speech. Right after that speech fell flat and Obama realized that people were simply not going to listen to his same old recycled pitches he comes up with immunity? Obama will do anything to change the subject from his failed economic policies. Sure Obama has been attempting immigration reform since he has been President, but doing this executive order now is nothing more than making legislation from the executive office. This changes our laws that are on the books. Obama is in charge of enforcing and executing the laws of the land and not making the laws. This power grab is Obama believing he is King that is able to decree whatever he desires. I do believe there needs to be an adult conversation on dealing with illegal immigration. Obama made it much more difficult to to have that adult conversation in his thinly veiled attempt to buy the Hispanic vote. Now look at the Gay marriage support. The Obama media complex spun this as Biden opening his mouth and forcing the President to 'Evolve'. Really; that's what the Obama media complex believes? Come on Obama sent Biden out there to float the idea. Obama needed to do something to get his base behind him. Obama knows the base is deserting him and he needed something to at least get them back on board. This little charade may get the base reluctantly involved but it has not done anything to get them excited. The leaks are criminal and whoever is responsible needs to be prosecuted. Selling out our informant on the Bin Laden raid is treasonous. Our informant is now in a Pakistani prison from which he will in all likelihood die. Obama is trying to show how tough he is in making "a kill list". Really that is what we want? A cowboy making a game out of killing people? The killing of terrorists is no game and I can't believe the left is allowing Obama to make it a game and than defend it as being a tough leader. I thought it was the right that was supposed to be heartless? The media complex and the left best get their story straight. Either you are a shrill for human rights or you are not. If you are a shrill for human rights than get on Obama for making a game out of killing people. If you are not a shrill than apologize for your actions against Bush and start at least being balanced in your reporting regarding the defense of our nation against future terrorist attacks. Wikileaks is bad enough but to have a Presidnet leaking information for political gain that will get Americans killed is criminal. This President is desperate; let there be no doubt. These recent actions are political in nature. The actions listed are borderline criminal and have but one intent; Get Obama re-elected. Obama knows he needs to get the narrative back. The problem is he can't talk about the economy and jobs because he has been such a miserable failure.

Tuesday, June 12, 2012

Sorry Juan; Private Sector Is More Than Wall Street

Last night on Bill O'Reilly, Juan Williams attempted to defend Obama's remarks saying the Private sector is doing fine. First of O'Reilly is correct, the unemployed workers are part of that private sector. However, even more important is small businesses. Juan attempted to tell the viewers that Obama's remarks were in line with wall Street profits. The problem is that Wall Street is not main street. The engine of the economy is small business and consumers. Small businesses are not doing fine. Small businesses are not hiring. The consumer is scared and spending money on paying for the "thingamagics" that were already purchased. Now I understand liberals believe that government workers will spend money in small businesses that will help them grow. I understand they believe in a multiplier effect, meaning that a government dollar spent yields more than a dollar in returns. The problem is this is unproven and I would venture a guess that an ineeficient government that can't be run like a business has a hard time yielding more output than what is input. If that were the case than government should confiscate all of the wealth and then spread it all back out. The problem is that has been tried and all that happens is everyone becomes poor with the exception of the ruling class. Just take a look at North Korea, the Soviet Union or even CHina prior to capitalism there. We need the private sector to be robust and growing. Since this recession started we are still over 4 million jobs short of where we were at prior to the recession. So in 4 years we haven't even got back to the starting blocks. The public sector on the other hand has grown in jobs. We have increased public expeditures and increased our debt to levels not seen since WWII yet the liberals still believe the public sector is the little engine the could. The facts say the private sector must lead the way. The facts say the private sector is still in dire straights. In the case of "the private sector is doing fine", this is not a gaffe. This is what liberals truly believe. Liberals do not believe in the private sector or they believe that the private sector is Wall Street. Obama's statement says more about what he believes is middle class and what believes is main street than his liberal friends want to let out of the bag. See main street America is more than the working poor. Main Street America is more than Wall Street. Main Street America is more than the political class. Main Street America are our family, friends, and neighbors. Main Street America is the Union worker, the Store Clerk, the factory worker, the construction worker, the plumber, the mortician, the small business owner, the resturant worker, the miner, the oil rig worker. The President doesn't understand that he is Presidnet of all the people rahter than President of the 50% +1. Jaun has to realize that the private sector is much more than Wall Street. Wall Street is in the Private sector, not the private sector. The little engine that could is the private sector and until liberals like Obama and Juan Willimas realize that our economy will remian in the doldrums.

A New Depression Era

For once I have to agree with Paul Krugman, at least on one point, we are in a depression. This is a depression of our own making and many of the reasons are similar to our last recession. This is not really the Obama depression but rather probably the Clinton depression. Bush entered office in the midst of the start of the depression and missed the signs and passed off the 2000-2001 recession as being a normal recesssion that started under Clinton and was exasperated by the 9/11 attacks. However, if one was to compare the roaring '20's with the irrational exuberance of the '90's we would see some of the same conditions that led to the great depression. The 1920's saw a rapid pace of new technology and innovations. Before WWI, automobiles were seen as a luxury item, throughout the 1920's, mass produced automobiles became common across the US. Radio became a means of mass communication. Aviation was coming into its own and advances in the chemical industry led to advances in the medical industry. In the 1990's most of the technological advances came in the form of computer industry. The internet proved invaluable for expanding business growth. The DOTCOMS became vital to our economic prosperity. The 1920's also saw government growth policies and construction booms. The real estate bubble of the 1920's is eerily familiar with the real estate bubble in the late '90's through 2007. Like the 1920's the consumer had become the engine of the economy. Easy money policies allowed individuals to leverage everything they owned to borrow more which fueled even greater spending. What all of this means is we should not be shocked that we are in a depression similar to the one in the 1930's. The excesses of the 1920's is what caused the great depression and the excesses of the 1990's have created this depression. The economic bubble burst in 2007. Debt and deflation are the root cause of both this depression and the greta depression. We have similar debt liquidation and distress selling occuring. Much of the stimulus that went to individuals was and is spent on reducing debt rather than purchasing new products. The American home is one of an individuals best investments assets but as the value of homes decreased once the real estate bubble burst there was less money to be spent. Like the 1920's there has been a loss of unemployment. Since the 1990's jobs have been outsourced and technology meant less people had to work to produce the same output. Interest rate are in free fall and the margins banks were forced to maintain were at lows in both the late 1990's and the 1920's. All of these indications are similar and are the cause of the situation we now face. We are in these conditions because of the irrational exuberance on the 1990's. We should have seen this coming. Just like the great depression we have had our ups and downs already. The signs were there with the Clinton recession. Bush was able to increase government spending spending with Keynesian policies buth that only hid the underlying problems. Obama is using similar if not the same policies as Bush at an even greater rate pushing us even further over the cliff. What we need now is a push towards private investment. We need less government and more entreprenuership. We need consumers back and not increased government spending. The reality is that once government grows beyond its means we create conditions for depressions. The Great depression was overcome only because we created hyperinflation which resulted in WWII. We are seeing many of these same signs today. Remember the Axis regimes including Franco, Mussolini, and Hitler came to power out of economic distress. Today, the PIIGS, are under duress and the people are revolting against "austerity" measures. Greece is just an example. France went the Socialist route. Spain may only have a few days before their bailout fails. If Greece is forced out of the Euro or the EU collapses hyper inflation will again rule the day in Europe. One never knows what a populist revolt will bring into power. The world is again at the brink. The Arab Spring may turn into the Autumn rebellion. Let there be no doubt we are in a world wide depression. We don't know what regime will manifest or where the next coflict will be but just like WWII was caused by economic distress, so may be the next world wide conflcit. We are in very dangerous times right now and unless we learn the lessons of the 1930's we may well be doomed to repeat them. We need to get our economic house in order. That means reducing the size of our government. We have to remain at the forefront of world leadership and not relegate our sovereignity to the United Nations. We can not become an isolationist country. We need private investors and get the government out of the investment business. Once government decides the winners and losers we are all doomed to failure. FDR initiated large government reforms and that is the same route taken by Obama and even Bush. However, the Great Society reforms are not what allowed us to climb out of the depression, WWII led us out of the depression. I would say we are closer to WWIII today than we have ever been. Hard economic times are always what cause social unrest. The Arab Spring was about the have's and Have not's. In our own society we have had the Occupy movement which was social unrest based on the have's and have not's. The economy will not work again until the government gets out of the way of business and allows private industry and consummerism to again reign free. Our conditions today are not that much different than the 1930's Obama hasn't saved us from a depression; he is steering us over the cliff. We need to reverse course and get out of the ditch. We had better hope that Europe saves itself and doesn't again allow hyperinflation that will allow despotic populist leaders come to reign. We are on the brink of catastrophy just compare the roaring '20's to the irrational exuberance of the 1990's. The excesses were similar. My question is will the result become the same?

Sunday, June 10, 2012

Obama Is About To Lose Big


The Obama campaign is in serious trouble. There are the latest out of touch with reality comments that will only harden anti Obama sentiment, but I believe there are more tangible signs that Obama is in trouble for his reelection bid. One sign Obama is in trouble is his approval rating. Obama is currently drawing an average of 47.7 %. That is not good for a President looking to be reelected. Another sign Obama is in trouble is Romney is winning the narrative right now. Obama is still seeking a message while Romney has found a campaign message from which to run a positive campaign. The third reason I believe Obama is in trouble is the recall election in Wisconsin. Unions, Democrats, and Obama went all in for the recall election in a subversive attempt to overturn an election. From the best I can tell Obama's approach to elections is that they are all perfectly fine as long as Obama and the Democrats are the winner. A fourth and very important reason Obama is in trouble is the economy. Last month the unemployment rate went up and not down. Much of the decrease over the last year is solely because people left the workforce and not because the economy created jobs. Finally, another sign Obama is in trouble is the generic Congressional ballot. According to RCP, Republicans are the choice of respondents over Democrats. Obama Approval Rating Obama has an approval rating under 50%. Approval has been dismal for most of the Obama first term. Historically, in reelection bids, Presidents receive approximately the same share of the popular vote in their reelection votes as an average of their approval rating for the preceding 12 months before the election. Now the pundits are saying that rather than an average over the preceding 12 months, instead they receive the same share of the vote as the latest approval rating just before the election. I don't take that at face value but even if that were true Obama is in trouble. Without a serious third party campaign (which there are no signs of one coming this election) Someone is going to have over 50% of the vote. Obama isn't really even close to that currently. The problem is the thoughts on Obama are hardening. We are less than 5 months away from the election. Obama has gone totally negative right now and that will not endear him in people's heart. Campaign Has No Message Currently there is no campaign theme for Obama. The economy is in the tank. Racism is not a winning theme nor is the war on women. Slow and steady may have worked but a third failed summer of economic growth is taking even a modest theme and making it work. Winning the future is a liberal gift bag to buy the votes of the left not win the votes of independents. Forward as a campaign theme won't win the hearts and minds of the people as long as the economy is running backwards. People will not want to just get the "car further hung up in the ditch. Nope, people are going to want to see improvement in positioning and the signs of that happening just are not there. This is not the Dole election of 1996. Dole was out of money following the Primary and had to remain dark until his campaign was infused with cash after the Republican convention. Romney doesn't have that problem and in fact out raised Obama in May. Obama has no message and is losing the cash race; not a good reelection standing with less than 150 days before the election. Wisconsin Recall The Wisconsin recall effort was a massive failure for Unions, Democrats, and Obama. Unions wasted millions of dollars on the recall effort. The problem is the voters were tired of Democrats attempting to subvert the will of the people. The Walker reforms have created jobs in the State, reduced deficits in the State, saved teachers jobs and pensions, reduced health care costs, and really placed Wisconsin in economic peace, something Obama has no idea how to accomplish. Sure Obama tried to save some face by avoiding the recall but Unions will remember the lack of support by this administration. By Obama abandoning the recall effort that he supported early on is hardly going to bring in large union dollars to support Obama in his bid. With all of the lost dues going to this recall effort there is simply less money in which to support Obama. It's the Economy Stupid This election is about the economy. In 2004, Democrats were screaming about a jobless recovery. That was a time when we were creating jobs at a much faster rate than we are today. Bush was creating jobs at over 200,000 per month average. Under Obama's economy we can't even create enough jobs to stay with population increase. Month after month we are falling further behind. The only reason the unemployment rate has dropped is because people are discouraged and leaving the workforce. More and more people are becoming dependent on government. Businesses are not starting up nor are they hiring. Businesses are scared and won't begin hiring again now until after this election cycle. Obama's regulations and taxes just do not foster a good business environment. People generally make their mind up on the economy by 5-6 months out. People understand that anything the incumbents do now is nothing more than political gimmicks designed to fool the people. So it is not the Republicans that cheering for economic pain, it is the administration that ignored the economy for three and half years now hoping for a miracle. Generic Vote The Republicans are winning the Generic vote for Congress. This does not bode well for any Democrat in office. Republicans win seats when they lead in generic ballots. Right now this generic lead probably means Republicans will pick up seats in the House, takeover the Senate, and win the Presidency. Historically, as long as Republicans kept this generic ballot close, even if Democrats had a slight lead, the Republicans won the election. America is a right of center country, and the generic ballot shows America believes Democrat policies do not match their own. Obama and the Democrats badly overreached in many areas. From Health care reform to immigration reform, Obama has set out to divide a country. America doesn't want to be divided and right now it looks like Obama is in trouble. These five reasons are why I believe this election is Romney's to lose. If the fundamentals don't change soon this election will not be close; Romney will win in a landslide. I see an election closer to 1980 than any other Reelection campaign. From Obama's the "private sector is doing fine" to his "maliase" type speeches, it reminds me of Carter in 1980. Carter tried similar things as Obama is doing now. See it was always never Carter's fault. It was always the fault of the people. In 1980 the Democrats were divided. Just look at the democrats of today ripping Obama for the Bain attacks, the ill-fated recall effort, and other diversions from the Obama record. Democrats are having problems carrying Obama's water and are distancing themselves from him. Obama is running on the politics of division and fear. Obama is running a purely negative campaign, blaming everyone but himself for his failures. Bottom line is America loves an underdog which is why we have Obama in the first place. Yet, America also hates whiners, failures, and losers, which is why Obama is on the ropes.

Monday, June 4, 2012

The Obama Economy


Obama owns this economy and he knows it. Sure Obama's surrogates and water carrying media pundits would love to change the dynamics and pass the blame onto the Republican led House but facts are facts and we are here facing the economic views due to Obama, his policies, and his wasted political capital. Sure Obama loves to blame Bush for the recession and the fact remains most people continue to blame Bush for the recession. The problem is that at this point passing blame of the recession is not good enough. Who is to blame is not or at least should not be the right question. The question is "who is to blame for the lack of economic recovery?" It is becoming increasingly apparent that the people are blaming Obama for the lack of recovery and rightfully so. The problem is Obama largely ignored the economy in the first two years of his first term. Instead of focusing on economic recovery which would have ensured democrats retained leadership in both houses of Congress, Obama instead focused on his ill fated Health care law. Obama wasted all of his political capital in getting a Health care bill signed into law. See as Obaam said he won the election and he was going to have his way. Obama himself even said that he was going to pass health care no matter what and that is what elections are for. Well in 2010, we had an election and the results couldn't have been a clearer repudiation of the lack of focus on the economy. Democrats didn't lose in 2010 because they passed Obamacare; they lost because the economy was still in the tank a full two years after Obama took office. Now another year and a half later, we have a stagnant economy at best. Last week 8.2% unemployment numbers just goo to show that Obama's policies on the economy have failed us. Now Paul Krugman says we didn't spend enough on stimulus. That is of course hogwash. Obama wrote in stimulus that was supposed to be a one time deal spent over two years. Yet we still haven't come close to the 2009 spending baseline. The increased spending by government has become permanent. See the left trying to pass off the increases in spending onto the Bush administration are disingenuous at best. See Obaam didn't use the stimulus and then lower what government spent; no Obama kept spending at the increased rate. So Mr. Krugman you are wrong to say we didn't spend enough. We are still spending at those increased levels. What was proposed as a one time deal are still being spent. This is permanent increased stimulus that is doing nothing for the economy. For the last five quarters we have grown at less than 2.0% GDP. This is not enough of an increase to even cover the growing population. We have been going backwards since Obama has been in office. Most voters are going to make the jump that the economy is what it is. We are going to have high unemployment under Obama. May was always going to become the last month Obama had before people begin making up their mind on the economy. Anything that Obama does will be seen as too little too late. Anything that would change to improve the economy now would be seen as nothing more than a political gimmick. To add to the problem, factory orders are down and this is going to be seen in this quarter's GDP report due out in July. Now Obama will be busy blaming everyone but himself, the fact remains Obama blew his political capital on what could become a law that is declared unconstitutional. For all of Obama's talk of pivoting towards jobs that was nothing more than throwing platitudes towards the American people. Obama never became serious about the economy until September of last year when it was apparent that the economy could not be ignored and expected to recover. Now to give Obama some credit, the economy has structural problems in it that must be corrected. This was never going to be just a business cycle recession. The economy had been run into the ground since the early 1990's. The irrational exuberance in the '90's has come home to roost. Economists should have come clean earlier about economic problems. The housing bust and financial meltdown were cause by this "irrational exuberance". The FED kept interest rates artificially low for years. This allowed people to borrow more money than ever before and that increased the value of homes. This unsustainable boom was bound to become a bust. The financial industry melted down because of the easy money and ill advised lending practices that ensued. By 2004 it had become painfully obvious we were in trouble. It took Bush almost his full first term to overcome the recession he inherited and the effects of the attacks on 9/11. It took until the spring of 2004 before the jobs started coming back even after the economy began growing. This should have been the warning shot across the bow. However, it wasn't, interest rates were held artificially low and the economy grew on the people's borrowed money. SO the federal government tapped out its credit, then the States tapped out their credit, and finally the individual tapped out its credit. There is no more money to be borrowed. Unfortunately now we need inflation just to get us out from under our burden of debt. That my friends will become the definition of our bankruptcy. The problem is Obama didn't recognize the structural problems. Obama didn't recognize that All of America's credit had been consumed. There is no where else from which to leverage credit. We can't borrow anymore lest we become a banana republic. Sure people are investing in US treasuries but they will only so long as it is profitable. From every appearance this is going to become a global recession. Brazil, China, and India growth is slowing. Europe is in a mess. Obama's policies have stifled business growth. Bottom line things are going to get worse before they get better. Not focusing on the economy and failing to get us out of the economic doldrums is Obama's fault. Just this year, Obama or the Senate Democrats have killed every proposal that would have increased jobs in America. Obama may want to blame Republicans and Obama surrogates may want to say Republicans are cheering for economic failure but it is Obama and the Democrats that have been unwilling to even bring up proposals that have passed the House. It is Obama that doesn't want something good to happen lest Republicans share in the credit. As always it is Obama's way or the highway. See Obama won, now it is high time he take responsibility for his economy and his wasted political capital.