The Obama campaign is in serious trouble. There are the latest out of touch with reality comments that will only harden anti Obama sentiment, but I believe there are more tangible signs that Obama is in trouble for his reelection bid. One sign Obama is in trouble is his approval rating. Obama is currently drawing an average of 47.7 %. That is not good for a President looking to be reelected. Another sign Obama is in trouble is Romney is winning the narrative right now. Obama is still seeking a message while Romney has found a campaign message from which to run a positive campaign. The third reason I believe Obama is in trouble is the recall election in Wisconsin. Unions, Democrats, and Obama went all in for the recall election in a subversive attempt to overturn an election. From the best I can tell Obama's approach to elections is that they are all perfectly fine as long as Obama and the Democrats are the winner. A fourth and very important reason Obama is in trouble is the economy. Last month the unemployment rate went up and not down. Much of the decrease over the last year is solely because people left the workforce and not because the economy created jobs. Finally, another sign Obama is in trouble is the generic Congressional ballot. According to RCP, Republicans are the choice of respondents over Democrats.
Obama Approval Rating
Obama has an approval rating under 50%. Approval has been dismal for most of the Obama first term. Historically, in reelection bids, Presidents receive approximately the same share of the popular vote in their reelection votes as an average of their approval rating for the preceding 12 months before the election. Now the pundits are saying that rather than an average over the preceding 12 months, instead they receive the same share of the vote as the latest approval rating just before the election. I don't take that at face value but even if that were true Obama is in trouble. Without a serious third party campaign (which there are no signs of one coming this election) Someone is going to have over 50% of the vote. Obama isn't really even close to that currently. The problem is the thoughts on Obama are hardening. We are less than 5 months away from the election. Obama has gone totally negative right now and that will not endear him in people's heart.
Campaign Has No Message
Currently there is no campaign theme for Obama. The economy is in the tank. Racism is not a winning theme nor is the war on women. Slow and steady may have worked but a third failed summer of economic growth is taking even a modest theme and making it work. Winning the future is a liberal gift bag to buy the votes of the left not win the votes of independents. Forward as a campaign theme won't win the hearts and minds of the people as long as the economy is running backwards. People will not want to just get the "car further hung up in the ditch. Nope, people are going to want to see improvement in positioning and the signs of that happening just are not there. This is not the Dole election of 1996. Dole was out of money following the Primary and had to remain dark until his campaign was infused with cash after the Republican convention. Romney doesn't have that problem and in fact out raised Obama in May. Obama has no message and is losing the cash race; not a good reelection standing with less than 150 days before the election.
The Wisconsin recall effort was a massive failure for Unions, Democrats, and Obama. Unions wasted millions of dollars on the recall effort. The problem is the voters were tired of Democrats attempting to subvert the will of the people. The Walker reforms have created jobs in the State, reduced deficits in the State, saved teachers jobs and pensions, reduced health care costs, and really placed Wisconsin in economic peace, something Obama has no idea how to accomplish. Sure Obama tried to save some face by avoiding the recall but Unions will remember the lack of support by this administration. By Obama abandoning the recall effort that he supported early on is hardly going to bring in large union dollars to support Obama in his bid. With all of the lost dues going to this recall effort there is simply less money in which to support Obama.
It's the Economy Stupid
This election is about the economy. In 2004, Democrats were screaming about a jobless recovery. That was a time when we were creating jobs at a much faster rate than we are today. Bush was creating jobs at over 200,000 per month average. Under Obama's economy we can't even create enough jobs to stay with population increase. Month after month we are falling further behind. The only reason the unemployment rate has dropped is because people are discouraged and leaving the workforce. More and more people are becoming dependent on government. Businesses are not starting up nor are they hiring. Businesses are scared and won't begin hiring again now until after this election cycle. Obama's regulations and taxes just do not foster a good business environment. People generally make their mind up on the economy by 5-6 months out. People understand that anything the incumbents do now is nothing more than political gimmicks designed to fool the people. So it is not the Republicans that cheering for economic pain, it is the administration that ignored the economy for three and half years now hoping for a miracle.
The Republicans are winning the Generic vote for Congress. This does not bode well for any Democrat in office. Republicans win seats when they lead in generic ballots. Right now this generic lead probably means Republicans will pick up seats in the House, takeover the Senate, and win the Presidency. Historically, as long as Republicans kept this generic ballot close, even if Democrats had a slight lead, the Republicans won the election. America is a right of center country, and the generic ballot shows America believes Democrat policies do not match their own. Obama and the Democrats badly overreached in many areas. From Health care reform to immigration reform, Obama has set out to divide a country. America doesn't want to be divided and right now it looks like Obama is in trouble.
These five reasons are why I believe this election is Romney's to lose. If the fundamentals don't change soon this election will not be close; Romney will win in a landslide. I see an election closer to 1980 than any other Reelection campaign. From Obama's the "private sector is doing fine" to his "maliase" type speeches, it reminds me of Carter in 1980. Carter tried similar things as Obama is doing now. See it was always never Carter's fault. It was always the fault of the people. In 1980 the Democrats were divided. Just look at the democrats of today ripping Obama for the Bain attacks, the ill-fated recall effort, and other diversions from the Obama record. Democrats are having problems carrying Obama's water and are distancing themselves from him. Obama is running on the politics of division and fear. Obama is running a purely negative campaign, blaming everyone but himself for his failures. Bottom line is America loves an underdog which is why we have Obama in the first place. Yet, America also hates whiners, failures, and losers, which is why Obama is on the ropes.