Friday, February 17, 2012

Reality Check

The left is heralding the idea that a second Obama administration and shift towards the democrats this November. Pelosi is busy proclaiming the democrats will take over the House. Nate Silver and other left leaning propagandists are proclaiming Obama is inevitable and the Republicans are blowing the race. Yet I'm not so sure that the recent uptick in approval ratings is necessarily good news for Obama. I definitely do not agree that Obama has a 60% chance of winning the Presidency. Additionally, I don't see the Democrats retaining control of the Senate. If the latest poll out of MA is any where near the truth, the Democrats have no chance of keeping the Senate.

I'd like a good explanation of how one believes Obama has a 60% chance of winning in November? Obama is currently under 50% in the RCP average of polls. The only polls showing Obama with an above 50% approval are media polls of all or registered voters. Both All people and registered voter polls tend to lean towards the left. Not really a true picture of what is happening on the ground. Obama has a ceiling of approximately 53%. That is the percentage Obama won in 2008. No way Obama could be receive greater than 53% right now, there is not the energy on the left there was in 2008. Obama has been struggling attaining his goal of $1 billion in donations. The Jewish vote is not supportive of the anti-Israel stances. Catholics are unhappy with Obama's unconstitutional abortifacient mandate. The young are flocking towards Ron Paul and blue collar workers are relooking the Republicans. These are the margin voters that are important for Obama to retain to have his coalition remain in tact. With Obama's margins falling, independents searching for a candidate to take us out of the failing economy and ever rising gasoline prices, how in the world is Obama considered to be a 60% favorite to win the election. The Republicans haven't even determined their candidate yet. Obama's rise in the polls is to be expected with the republicans attacking each other rather than the "chosen one".

Congress is looking like another defeat for the Democrats. Right now according to RCP democrats are barely polling better than republicans. Republicans will usually fare better than democrats if they hold the preference between party's to under a 5% advantage for the Democrats. The Senate appears to be even a worse bet. If the recent poll out of MA showing Scott Brown is any near being accurate there is no way the democrats will be able to maintain the Senate. Two republican pick ups are almost gimme's and the Republicans need only a net gain of four. If democrats can't pick up MA there is little if any hope of retaining the Senate.

I certainly understand the feeling things aren't quite going right for republicans right now. The pathetic pawns keep propping up the failed "chosen one". Everything that happens in government right now is a win for Obama no matter what it is. There is a battle going on for the nomination and Obama has been hidden from public view for awhile. Soon enough the republicans will pick the candidate. The nominee will galvanize the base relatively quickly as most republicans understand the number one goal is to defeat Obama before America as we know it is destroyed. Once the camera is clearly focused on the Obama failed economic policies, his approval ratings will again decline. The best democrats can hope for this year is to take an additional 5-10 in the House and keep loses in the Senate to under 5. At best Obama has a 50-50 chance of winning. Not good position for an incumbent running unopposed in the primary with a yet to be determined opponent.

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