Wednesday, February 29, 2012

Pelosi Confidence Unwarranted

Despite the recent hype from Nancy Pelosi and the DNCC the Democrats are still in trouble for their planned takeover of the House. We heard the same hype in 2010 and we all know how that worked out. Pelosi is blowing smoke hoping to keep the money rolling in in hopes of pulling what now looks like a huge upset. But what would one expect a minority leader to say?

First for Pelosi and her claim of confidence at the possible takeover of the House. Let me remind everyone that in Spring of 2010, Pelosi was saying there was no way possible the Democrats would lose the House and yet it was a landslide. Even the left wing pundits were slow accept an impending defeat for Democrats in 2010. Sure, the left claimed they would take loses but never did they publicly state a possibility, even a remote one, that Republicans had a prayer of taking the House. We all know how that worked out. Also it was apparent the Democrats would lose in 2010 as they were significantly behind in the Generic Republican versus the generic Democrat question in the polls. Now the Democrats and Republicans are roughly running even, with the Democrats slightly ahead, according to the Real Clear Politics average. That close favors Republicans not the Democrats. Whenever the Democrats did extremely well they were trouncing Republicans by double digits in the generic polls. The Democrats had modest gains when the split favored Democrats by 5-10%. However, republicans did modestly well when they trailed by 5% or less to having slight favoring. When they were up over 5% in the generic polls, the Republicans trounced the Democrats. With the current split being less than 1% in favor of Democrats, I would say Republicans will hold their own in the House races. Right now the Republicans are still lining up behind one of four candidates for President. here is a split in the party and with that split will come uncertainty in Republicans. Once the nominee is selected and starts laying out an agenda people will have to chose what vision is closer to their own, Obama, Reid and Pelosi, or a Republican alternative. Bottom line is that this is way to early to be making predictions for the House and Senate. A Presidential Nominee must be selected first and once that happens we shall see. Let me tell you though that unless the Democrats vastly improve in the eyes of the electorate they will be taking another drubbing in November.


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