Friday, January 15, 2010

Obamacare On Life Support

Obamacare is in all likelihood on life support. I say this regardless of the outcome of the Massachusetts special election. Whether Scott Brown wins or loses at this point may just be irrelevant. Regardless of the spin produced by Obama, Pelosi, and Reid, their efforts to crush out the spirit of the American people may have been stopped dead in their tracks. The polls are showing the shattering of the Obama agenda. The Democratic caucus is fractured and the health care bill has ruined the Democratic Party for years to come.

That a Republican is within shouting distance of a Democrat in Massachusetts is sending shockwaves through the Democratic party. Just today another Blue Dog Democrat chose the retire rather than be humiliated route. Congressman Vic Snyder (D) from Little Rock won't be seeking re-election following a host of other Blue Dogs that have members jumping parties as Parker Griffith has or retiring as Brian Baird has. The odds of the Democrats holding an effective governing majority in the house is in peril. Passing health care may be the nail in the coffin the sends Pelosi back to being a nobody. The writing is on the wall. Every Democrat understands that passin health care means they will lose massive numbers next November. Scott Brown polling ahead of Coakley has moderates Democrats worrying they are on the chopping block. The moderates understand they are endangered species should they take the bribes and give Obama his shallow victory.

Obama going for broke in his bid to socialize American health care. Obama has doubled down and even said he would prefer the 2010 elections be a debate about healthcare. The recent polls show this is a losing proposition. Less than 40% of the public support Obama in his takeover plan. Should Democrats polls 40% nationwide they will lose over 100 members in the house and America will then have something "historic" and "unprecedented". The liberals are heeding Bill Clinton's message that Demcorats lost in 1994 because they failed to pass health care reform. The Democrats actually believe their popularity will go up once they stuff their health care garbage down the American electorate's throats. Nothing could be further from the truth. The Democrats are lying to themselves. This is a bad bill and the Democrats know it. Scott Brown is making them aware.

Obama won by a 26% margin in Massachusetts. Even if the polls are all wrong, Coakley won't win by double digits. A betting man or woman would probably win any wager that gives brown five points. Coakley probably can't draw more than 52% of the vote at this time. So why is Obama going to Massachusetts? Probably because the Democrats in Massachusetts have told Obama that she is up at least 5 points and they are trying to get the margins to double digits. My take is that this is a tossup right now and if momentum continues Obama may only be able to keep Brown's margin down to under five points. The truth is Obama is not showing up until Sunday. This is really late and only provides for two days to stop the Coakley slow bleed.

Obamacare is on life support let there be no doubt. In my opinion all Brown has to do is keep this race under 5 points. Even if he loses if it is under five points Obamacare probably unravels. The strongest instinct a human has is the instinct to survive. This special election becoming a true race will have moderates running for the hills and seeking ways to survive. Jettisoning the health care bill before them may be the way to survive. Obama knows what is at stake. Again my guess is he believes Coakly is up at least five points and he hopes his presence increases that margin to 10 points. Obama is desperate to shore up the queasy moderates to bring them in line. Anything less than a 10 point Coakley win and the moderates will be turning off the life support on Obama care.

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