Thursday, April 2, 2009

NY-20 Nailbiter: Obama Defeat

The special election that was held on MAR 31 for New York's 20th Congressional district between Scott Murphy and Jim Tediso is yet to be decided. The two candidates are separated by a scant 13 votes with all but three counties recanvassing their counts. Essentially this race will be decided by absentee ballots and is sure to be close and decided by less than 100 votes. There has been much debate over this race over who the big winner is and who is the big loser. My thoughts are that no matter the final vote count Obama is the big loser.

Both parties spent loads of money trying to win this seat. This is a seat that was held for two elections by a democrat. This is a district carried by Obama just a short 150 days ago. This is a seat that had Obama not only provide mass emails lists but also a ringing Obama endorsement. This is a seat the democrats should have held and held comfortably.

The left has touted that Republicans outnumber democrats in this district. There are 70,000 more registered Republicans than democrats. The left says this is a mainly rural district. The left believes Republicans should have taken this seat. The problem is that they are missing much of the finer points. Obama weighed in and endorsed Murphy. Just before purchasing the IPOD for the Queen of England, Obama sent a mass email out to all of his supporters in the district encouraging them to turnout and vote for Murphy. The former representative carried this seat 150 days ago by large margins. Obama even carried this district. The district begins just north of New York city. Obama has 60% approval ratings across the nation yet still the Republican held his own. It was reported over the last week leading into the election that the Republicans party and the NRCC was despondent and dejected feeling they were going to lose an opportunity. Murphy outspent Tediso heavily in the last couple of weeks heading into the election.

The bottom line is that Tediso made this a close election. Tediso may even eke out the win depending on absentee ballots. This is an election that does not bode well for the democrats. If they can not hold onto this seat in a democratic year, with a popular President they are doomed to lose this seat in the near future. New York is a liberal state. Republicans are a dying breed in the dark blue North East. This election should not be this close. This election shows that Obama does not carry as much weight as he did just 150 days. At this rate by 2010, Obama will have lost seats in the house and the Senate. Senator Dodd is in a heap of trouble for 5 term Senator. Should the Democrats start having trouble with the likes of Dodd the Republicans will increase their numbers and Obama will be in trouble. The best 2009 Barometer we will have is Virginia and New Jersey governorships. Obama carried Virginia and New Jersey has been blue for quite some time. Should Republicans pick up both of these states Obama's luster will be dull and the Democrats will be defending more than they believe in 2010.

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