Monday, November 3, 2008

Two Things The Polls Don't Show

There are two stories that the polls will be unable to show. The polls are finished and McCain is down on average 7.3 %. Is there anyway McCain can win? I believe McCain can pull this election out because the polls will not show the effect of two recent developments: 1) Obama's Coal Bankruptcy Development and 2) Obama flipping the bird to McCain.

The Coal comment was made last January and was hidden by the SF Chronicles. This was run all over the net over the weekend and made the MSM. While the MSM tried to downplay the situation at least leaders in the coal industry have spoken out in two states. These statements are not going to change the National Polls but it will change State polls where coal is important. Where is coal important? Ohio, Virginia, West Virginia, Indiana, Montana, Colorado, Nevada, and Pennsylvania. All of these states are in the margin of error and closing. Should McCain carry all of the 2004 red states listed here it is almost impossible for Obama to win. This was an unwise statement made by Obama that came out too late for the media to spin it away and it will be one of the last statements voters in these States here about. This could be a game changer that brings Pennsylvania well within the margin of error. Then after this comment plays all weekend Obama makes an Obscene gesture towards McCain.

The obscene gesture made by Obama has the capability of turning the undecided voter decidedly towards McCain. It may only be 3-4 points but that three to four points is enough to turn battleground states from Obama up within the Margin of error to a McCain win in those States.

Many McCain supporters are down after the last National polls came out today. However, these polls were taken over the weekend and McCain has historically dropped in the polls every weekend and picked up steam by Tuesday decreasing the lead by the end of the week into the margin of error. All of this will play out tomorrow. The McCain supporters need to vote. The lesser of two evil supporters need to turn out and vote. The PUMA's need to vote. The undecided need to vote. In the end, these voters will turn a 7.3% deficit into a 5% win by McCain. A 5% win by McCain gets McCain to 307 electoral votes. A 307 electoral vote margin will also make the Congress stay roughly manageable where a centrist candidate could run a centrist administration.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

I was born in southeastern Ohio, close to the W Va border, so well within the coal belt. Though I live in CA now, I grew up in the coal belt. Just the thought of Obama saying that really upsets me. He'll destroy how many jobs with that stance. How many peoples' livelihoods depend on the coal industry in those states? I know the rest of my family back in Ohio will not be casting ballots for Obama, and this left leaning democrat will proudly be voting Republican for the first time in her life tomorrow!