Sunday, November 2, 2008

McCain Must Win Two of Three States

This election is coming to a close. Even though the pundits have been claiming the election has been over for the last three weeks I have to disagree. McCain is in the position of underdog but America loves underdogs. McCain is in a position where he has to win most of the close states but I think in the end he will win most of these states. Here is a list of States that many pundits believe are in play:

Florida
Ohio
North Carolina
Indiana
Missouri
New Mexico
Colorado
Pennsylvania
Iowa
New Hampshire

Most of these States will go to McCain with little if any real closeness. Florida and Ohio are probably Sates McCain wins by 3-5%. Ohio has a huge Get Out The Vote Machine on the Republican side. Yes there have been 700,000 new voters added to the roles in the last 4 years in Ohio but there are many that are fraudulent registrations by ACORN. Additionally there was a close Democratic nomination this year and many people showed up specifically to provide Hillary Clinton a victory in this State. There is probably not enough new voters to make up the get out the vote apparatus this year.

North Carolina is a pipe dream. Most of the State is made up of small towns and rural Americans that Obama continues to criticize as being bitter and clingy. Virginia is close but in the end it appears that McCain is doing better in Northern Virginia than anticipated and is wiping Obama out in Southeastern Virginia. These signs do not bode well for an Obama victory in the Old Dominion State.

Indiana and Missouri have been trending towards McCain over the last week. Do not look for a change of heart that will push the momentum back to Obama in these two stats.

New Mexico will likely turn blue this year as will Iowa. These two states give an additional 12 electoral votes to Obama but he still needs more red states to turn blue. That is why Colorado is so important.

Colorado has been moving back to McCain over the last week. If McCain wins this State Obama needs to flip one of the other previously mentioned States and not lose Pennsylvania.

So the election will turn on three states and McCain needs to win two out the three. The three important states are:

Virginia
Colorado
Pennsylvania

If McCain wins two of these three States it will be a long night for Obama. By holding on to the red states of Colorado and Virginia Obama has to hope he turns another State in the toss up arena that has been moving towards McCain. There is very little doubt Obama will turn at least two red states without losing any blue states. The problem is that Obama has to win three red states and not lose any blue states.

The polls are tightening and we are seeing some signs of the state polls moving. Last week Pennsylvania was solid Obama. Colorado and Virginia were +8 Obama. This weekend all three are in the margin of error. The key to a McCain victory on Tuesday is for all McCain supporters to get out and vote. If McCain supporters do not get demoralized prior to election night this will be close and we will have a good feeling early when Virginia and Pennsylvania are announced.

Remember where the candidates are campaigning. Obama in the last week has been in both Pennsylvania and Iowa. These are two must win States for Obama. It is very unlikely Obama wins without taking both of these states. McCain has also been heavily in Pennsylvania. There is a reason McCain is in Pennsylvania; he believes it is close. There is no other reason for him to be there because McCain only needed to play defense of the red states. Obama has to expand the playing filed not McCain so it is very telling that McCain is heavily in Pennsylvania and so is Obama. If the campaign was entirely in Red States I would say Mccain is finished. But it is not entirely in red states as both campaigns have invested heavily in Iowa and Pennsylvania. Just remember McCain needs to win two out of three States and two of the states are red states. This is far easier to defend than it is to flip. Get out and vote like your livelihood depends on it.... Because it does.

4 comments:

Pat said...

Thanks for your encouragement: And yes and I will be out to vote for Obama here in Philadelphia. As you say, our livelihood depends on it.

Anonymous said...

I was playing with the RCP electoral map and I came to a similar conclusion. I hope we are both right.

P.S. I have voted Democrat for President every year since 1972, but this year I voted for McCain. I like McCain's economic policies and government reform.

Michael said...

Well, in reality, this sounds like more Republican "spin" to me -- that's the "pipedream" I'm hearing. Obviously, you've been conducting this complicated polls for quite some time and have made your living and built your reputation doing it, as those who have been publishing have. Suffice it to say, that aside, that I'm more than a little skeptical of what you speak. In fact, I am SO skeptical (a eupheism for entirely disbelieving) that I printed out your article so that I can compare it to the "realities" of Tuesday evening. We'll see who is better at this poll thing -- you or the pollsters! Have a great day! :)

The Lizard said...

Michael,

No need to print it out it will be posted right here. Unlike Obama own website or his followers websites I will not hide what was written.