Sunday, November 2, 2008

Inside the Margin Of Error

The latest International Business Daily tracking poll has John McCain well within the margin of error at 2.1%. This does not bode well for the chosen one. The IBD tracking poll was the closest poll last election cycle. Now it has McCain closing over the weekend. This is unusual as Republicans do not poll well over Fridays and Saturdays.

There is other anecdotal evidence that Obama is in trouble. First the PUMA's the PUMA's are beginning to roar. Second the battleground States are closing. Third Obama has to flip at least one big state or three smaller States that voted for Bush. Obama was in Iowa last week which is not a good sign. McCain was in Pennsylvania all week and is still there today. None of this campaigning shows Obama with a commanding lead. Rather it shows Obama is a little desperate. Obama realizes he needs to flip another State besides New Mexico and Iowa. Obama believed North Carolina, Virginia, or Colorado might do the trick. The Problem is McCain did not fall into the trap of just defending Bush territory. McCain actively pursued Pennsylvania, Maine, Wisconsin, and Minnesota. Picking off any of these States will make it much more difficult for Obama.

Most of the pundits are pushing the theme that this started off with a 270-268 map. But it didn't, this started off 286-252. Obama must flip at least 16 electoral votes without losing any. In this election Obama was more worried about the flipping of Bush States than defending blue states. This race is coming down to three states: Virginia, Colorado, and Pennsylvania. This is not exactly an enviable position to be in.

Now we also see McCain spending more on advertising the last few days than Obama. The State polls are closing and Obama may not be able to defend. Obama started running out the clock three weeks ago. The prevent defense might not be enough as McCain has closed the gap and we are entering the two minute warning within the margin of error.

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