Sunday, October 12, 2008

Polls: Internals Must be Different Than External Results

Poll internals must be showing something far different than the reported external results. How else to explain the actions of the two candidates. John McCain is vigorously campaigning in a state where the average reported external poll result is Obama +11.8. Iowa is a state that has been solidly in Obama's column since he won the Iowa caucus in January. Yet McCain is out there campaigning. McCain was outspent 7 to 1 in the last week of SEP and First week of OCT. The polls are showing Obama winning in States McCain must win like Virginia and Ohio. Both of these states are big with Virginia having 13 electoral votes and Ohio has 20, Iowa on the other hand has 7. Another issue is that Obama and his surrogates are yet again playing the race card.

First we will take a look at the campaign stops. McCain has campaigned in Wisconsin, Iowa, and Pennsylvania recently. Iowa voted for Bush in 2004, but McCain could lose this state and still win in November. Wisconsin has voted Blue since 1984. The average of the polls show Obama + 8.8. Pennsylvania is another State McCain has been very visible in. PA has not been red since 1988 and the average of polls is 13.8 for Obama. McCain does not need any of these three to win. There are other States McCain must win in order to win and the average of polls show McCain behind. Yet McCain is highly visible in these states. There must be internal polls that show a closer race than Obama and the pathetic pawns of the MSM are letting on.

Second look at the recent racial undertones to the campaigns. Yesterday, Representative John Lewis attacked McCain along racial lines. McCain denounced this attack while Obama agreed with the attack. Late last week McCain told his supporters to remain respectful of Obama. This all the while Obama fuels the fire of racism. Obama has a history of doing this. Every time Obama feels he needs a bump in the polls he uses race as an issue. Obama keeps race baiting and claims McCain and the Republicans will use race in this election but so far the only ones using race is the Obama campaign and surrogates.

For both of these reasons I have to believe the internals of the polls show something far different than the reported external results. I also believe the external polls are polling heavily in favor of the Democrats. Newsweek just completed a poll that showed Obama +11 yet they polled Democrats at +13%. There is no way on election day there will be a +13% difference between democrats and republicans. We are a center right country not a center left country. 62 % of Americans consider themselves conservative yet newsweek would like for us to believe there is a 13% difference in party identification. This is unheard of. Let there be no doubt something is going on with the internals or the MSM, Obama, and Obama surrogates are fanning the flames of racism. Axelrod blames McCain and calls for unity but it is Obama and his campaign that is dividing our nation along racial lines.


The Common Conservative said...

This past Saturday, I spent the better part of an hour reading the internals of the Battleground and other polls. Astonishingly, one poll showed 62% of people seeing McCain and a better leader for this nation. Another was around 58% to my recollection.

How do these numbers skew into an Obama lead? ONLY by the way questions as being asked no doubt. I can create a question that will poll for the result I desire. That has been proven over and over.

Of ALL the polls, I find it very hard to believe that this isn't going to be a VERY tight race down to the wire.

Don Bistrow said...

Well done!

I have watched the RCP averages until my head is about to explode. Until this week RCP wasn't including Zogby who was consistently showing the race much closer than others.

Next, Gateway Pundit did an analysis about 2 weeks ago showing WAPO and the bizarre polling methods they used that would skew the results in favor of Obama. This poll gets into RCP avgs.

Should we believe anything from CBS/NBC/NY Times/WSJ-NBC/ et al? Even Gallup is all over the place like a visit to Great America and a ride on the roller coasters.

And let us not forget the infamous "exit polling" in past elections, which were deceitful at the very least.

With all that said, McCain is all over the place too. He names, names than tells everyone to be respectful. The he tells his crowd that Obama is a decent person. Then he runs ads about Ayers but ignores Rev. Wright.

The Conservative bloggers are carrying the water for McCain. Let's hope your analysis is correct and they indeed know something we don't.

Or...maybe Mr. McCain is lost in the woods looking for an ACORN!

Ted said...

Rezko, Wright, Raines, Ayers … and now Acorn!!! This is over the top. Obama’s a fraud and should not be allowed anywhere near the White House.

zyle said...

"Newsweek just completed a poll that showed Obama +11 yet they polled Democrats at +13%. There is no way on election day there will be a +13% difference between democrats and republicans. We are a center right country not a center left country. 62 % of Americans consider themselves conservative yet newsweek would like for us to believe there is a 13% difference in party identification. This is unheard of."

It may be that Newsweek thinks that voter turnout in 2008 will be along the lines of the Congressional elections of 2006. And since, in their dreams, the result of 2008 will be akin to 2006.

There are two under-reported indicators of how the Election 2008. One is the AOL presidential straw poll, and the other is the Electoral Richter Scale (which has historically foretold landslide elections).

If you have not voted in the AOL poll this week, you may do so by going to this link:

The weekly AOL straw poll was strengthened for accuracy by eliminating the former easy-multiple-voting (although now it is a bit difficult to vote at all!). Nevertheless, the result still indicates John McCain will win in a landslide (though not by as big a margin as the poll formerly indicated).

Out of curiosity, last week I analyzed the results of the AOL straw poll (which had aprox 120,000 votes), comparing it to the results of the 2004 presidential election (which had aprox 120,000,000 votes).

Understanding that there will likely be more votes in the 2008 election than the 2004 election, one can still use the 2004 results to get a rough idea of how many people will vote in 2008.
The ratio of AOL Votes to Election 2004 Votes is

(Most of the national polls we see -- e.g. Gallop, Rasmussen, Zogby -- have samplings of 200-1200 voters. A poll of 1200 would have a ratio of 1:10,000... which would obviously not be as representative as a 1:1000 ratio poll!)

I compared the ratio of various individual states within the AOL poll to the number of votes in the same state in 2004. The ratio of each state, with few exceptions, was surprisingly close/consistent. (The AOL ratio results tend to be a bit higher, but that would be expected since there will likely be more votes in Election 2008 than 2004)

Here are some Examples:

AOL-- 331
2004- 300,000

AOL-- 2,700
2004- 2,000,000

AOL-- 14,500
2004- 13,000,000

AOL-- 5,000
2004- 4,000,000

Interesting, huh.

And if last weeks straw poll results hold true this week (and in the 2008 election), then McCain will win nationally 54%-41% and electorally 388-150.

Barack Obama will only win 9 states
(and DC):
California (by less than one percent!), Hawaii, Illinois, Iowa, New York, Massachusetts, Vermont, Rhode Island and Maryland.

(An interesting footnote to this: Obama failed to carry Delaware, which is the home state of his VP Joe Biden. We will have to keep an eye on Delaware on Novemebr 4th to see if Obama loses it by the same 4% margin.)

As for the Electoral Richter Scale, a landslide loss for Barack Obama was foretold by the ERS back in April. The ERS has been historically accurate in predicting landslide elections. The only discrepancy, in statewide races (of the "mega-eleven states"), between the AOL straw poll and the ERS is California, which the ERS indicates Obama will lose.

Here is a link to the article about the Electoral Richter Scale that foretells which of the "mega-eleven" states Barack Obama will lose (despite what the pollsters would have us believe)

Anonymous said...

zyle - you are hilarious. MaCaion in a landslide? You're delusional. Obama 380-158, popular Obama 53 McCain 44. I'll happily look for your posts around 11 PM EST on the 4th when Obama's been declared the landslide winner. And I'll gloat at your tears. What a doofus you are!