Wednesday, October 29, 2008

Go John Go

The polls have shown signs of closing this week. Today Real Clear Politics has the race average at 6.0%. Take out the outlier poll (PEW 15%) and this race is down to 4-5 points. This is a 3% change in just three days and this race is in the margin of error.

Now the early voting is showing large margins for registered Democrats. The count is 60%-39% Democratic to Republican. Now the spin is that McCain has to move the polls to +5% or better in order to make up for this difference. This is an improper analysis. First of all these voters can not vote again their votes are cast. These voters are going to be voters that were not really going to change their minds anyway. Their minds were made up and already in the Obama or McCain camp. There votes were already taken into account in these polls. The polls are closing because undecideds are making a choice and leaners are taking a second look at both candidates. So the early voting tally's make no significant difference. Again these are voters that were not going to change anyway. The shift is coming from the remaining 2/3 of the voters.

McCain is still in this race and supporters should not be discouraged this late in the race. Here's why. McCain is closing Nationally and is in the margin of error recent state polls. These State polls tend to lag behind the national trend. Back in September when McCain was up by just 2% he would have won every battleground state and was within the margin of error in blue States such Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Minnesota, and Michigan. Now to be sure Michigan was lost when McCain pulled out. The other three are still in play and McCain need only one of these to shut the door on Obama.

There is a pipe dream that Obama is winning in Virginia. The problem is the internals are showing something different. McCain is keeping the margins closer than expected in Northern Virginia. Senator Allen lost his reelection bid in 2006 by a slim margin and McCain is outpolling Allen in Northern Virginia. Also internal polls are showing McCain is winning by landslide margins in Southeastern Virginia. This does not bode well for Obama.

If McCain continues to close the national polls Virginia will remain Red. Back in September when McCain was winning by 2% Virginia, North Carolina, and Ohio were solidly in McCain's camp. Colorado was in the margins of error. This is all McCain needs to win the presidency. McCain has been campaigning heavily in Pennsylvania and Iowa. These are two blue states and states McCain does not need to flip. If he was truly behind in Virginia and North Carolina why would McCain not have pulled out of expensive Pennsylvania and focus on just playing defense? All McCain has to do is get these polls to settle in around the margin of error.

Obama has failed to close the deal. Even in the primaries Obama could not close the deal. Obama always polled better than he performed. Remember New Hampshire. Obama was up 10% leading into Primary day and he ended up losing by 5%. In Pennsylvania, polls had him within 4% and closing, but on election day he lost by 10%. Undecided always tended to break against Obama. So if this race in the final polls prior to NOV 4 show this within 2% with 6% undecided Obama will lose.

Now this does not mean McCain is in the drivers seat. There is no doubt McCain is the underdog and has his work cut out for him. McCain is still down 4-5 points and that will not be enough on election day. However, if McCain keeps pounding Obama on the socialist front and the LA Tmes/Khalidi front Obama will continue to slide. McCain needs to stay on message. Rasmussen is showing results tomorrow that have McCain leading on the economy. If the polls are anywhere close on the economy Obama will lose. Obama needs to win the economy by at least 8-10 points to win. McCain will cruise on the second most important issue (Foreign Policy) so all he has to do is keep the economy close. So while Obama is providing victory speeches and planning transition,McCain should keep campaigning. Go John Go.

2 comments:

Richard said...

More far-right wishful thinking. You people are more dangerous to America than Obama ever can be.

Anonymous said...

Richard,

It is you that that has nothing substantive to say. Critizing by name calling is not constructive. People like you are more dangerouss to the Nation than even Obama could be.

If Obama wins (and that is yet to be determined) people like you will be responsible for the consequences. Blind followers are usually the ones eating crow in the end.