Saturday, September 6, 2008

Why McCain Will Win

The math is simple. In the 2004 Presidential election approximately 105 million people voted for President. This year adjusting for increased population and increased interest there will probably 120 million voters. Lets looks at where this election starts out. These are my assumptions: The democrats increased their ranks and start off enjoying 35% of the electorate (42 Million Voters). The Republicans have lost some strength and represent approximately 30% (36 million voters)of the electorate. Independents represent another 35% (42 Million Voters)of the electorate.

Obama has been weak in his own party. The Democrats had a split party entering their convention and had to devote their entire convention on uniting the party. The theme of the convention was bringing change to Washington from within. Change Washington by changing political parties. As a result Obama will probably garner 85% of the Democratic vote. This gives Obama a base of 35.7 million votes. Approximately, 4.2 million of the remaining Democrats will vote for McCain.

McCain energized his Party base prior to the convention by selecting Palin. This allowed McCain to have a theme of bringing change to Washington from outside. The theme was service to America and giving the government back to the people. It was a reformist theme rather than a change of guard theme. As a result McCain will receive 90% of the Republican vote. The base will give McCain 32.4 Million votes. Obama will only garner 3% of the remaining disaffected Republicans as the rest will go to Bob Barr. This will add another 1.1 million voters to Obama.

So sa we start this election We see that Obama starts off with approximately 36.8 million votes and McCain starts with 36.6 million votes. This is a 200,000 vote lead prior to independents being included. If these voters are evenly split We could have a situation where one candidate wins the popular vote and another wins the electoral college. A split in independents favors McCain. If McCain maintains his slight lead among independent he wins similar to 2004. If McCain garners 54 % of independents he wins in a landslide. Obama will need to win independents and win big to push an agenda of socialist reforms. A slight win among independents would only provide a slight majority in the electoral college. Obama would need at 55% to receive a bare governing majority and 60% to receive the highly coveted mandate. Yes McCain is in great position to start this election.

3 comments:

DeniseMary said...

Really hope your analysis is accurate. As for this Independent, McCain's got my vote in his pocket:)

Anonymous said...

As Al Gore and the whiners found out, it is still the Electrical College that counts!!!!!




Don't worry I know it's the electoral college, my Bro' in-law says it that way. What does that look like with your theory?

How many states will he win?

Anonymous said...

Guess you're wrong, BITCH.

conservatives are so out of touch with all of humanity, but I suppose, being that you all live in the middle of bum-fuck nowhere worshiping your imaginary friends, with no touch with the outside world and utter lack of higher education - it all makes perfect sense that you'd believe everything you're told by the campaigners.