Tuesday, September 9, 2008

Obama: Big Trouble

Barack Obama is in big trouble. His campaign has already foregone the 50 state push. His campaign now states they will target a handful of red states. In reality it means Ohio, Colorado, and New Mexico will be seeing a lot of Obama in the near future. But there is trouble in the water.

First it is being reported that Obama is not meeting fund raising goals. On the surface this might not mean much. But here are some facts. McCain and the RNC have $220 million in the bank if they do not raise another dime. Unless Obama and the DNC raised in excess of $125 million in August he will be behind that total in the bank. Obama has mismanaged his millions in donations and the effects are shown in his daily burn rate. The propaganda wing has been destroyed by their "coming out" party when Palin was announced. The Pathetic Pawns were put in the place. Now Obama and the DNC have sent 30 lawyers to Alaska to dig for dirt. This does not come cheap.

Obama will have to continue raising money as a candidate. This poses risks because he has to be partisan. He has to show his liberal roots in an effort to draw out the liberal cash. Comments like "bitter Americans Clinging to Guns and religion" could yet again surface. Funding raising is a tricky business in the midst of a campaign. It is fr better to have all the cash you need prior to the general election.

The second problem for Obama are the battleground States. New Jersey has a poll out today showing the race at +6 for Obama. This does not bode well. New Jersey is a Blue State and has been trending more blue every year. Republicans are scarce in New Jersey with the exception of a couple of counties. In a Democratic year, for Obama only to be up +6 in a State where McCain has not been seen is a sign of trouble. If New Jersey is a +6 I would like to see a poll in Connecticut. If Connecticut is within the margin of error as it is in all likelihood with Joe Lieberman backing McCain so strongly at the convention Obama will have to reallocate resources to blue states that should already be solidly in his column. New Jersey and Connecticut are very expensive to compete in and if McCain shows this strong Obama will be forced to campaign in New Jersey. Pennsylvania is also a traditional blue state (since 1992). Obama will have to campaign there just to keep it recent polls have it Obama +2. I am sure McCain would trade Ohio for Pennsylvania. Next we have Michigan. Another blue state since 1992. Mighigan is Obama +1. Next we move to Minnesota. Minnesota is the bluest of blue states. Historically Minnesota votes democratic. It has not voted for a Republican president since 1972. It is the only State not to have voted Red at least once since 1972. I have not seen recent polls but because of the Republican convention being held there and the reception Sarah Palin received there I am assuming it is close. Now we go to Wisconsin. This has been reliable democratic recently but the election have been close. Obama is currently up +3. Then the shockers come in to play Washington State is +4.

Obama is in trouble if he is forced to defend blue states. David Plouffe even said today they were going to focus on a few red states. I am assuming they will be Florida, Virginia, Ohio, Iowa, Colorado, and New Mexico. However, if over the next two weeks Obama doesn't make some progress in the polls his funding will dry up. It becomes more difficult to defend your home turf when you don't have the resources. If we start seeing Obama in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania every day we will know Obama is in trouble. If we see him in Connecticut or New Jersey it will all be over.

5 comments:

Anonymous said...

He is in big trouble but in different sense:

Senator Obama: "John McCain says he's about change, too, and so I guess his whole angle is 'watch out, George Bush, except for economic policy, health care policy, tax policy, education policy, foreign policy and Karl Rove-style politics -- we're really going to shake things up in Washington!' That's not change...you know, you can put lipstick on a pig, but it's still a pig."

I see more woman voters and decent people fleeing his "party".

The Lizard said...

I had no idea Obama would make this big of a mistake. The pig joke is circulating the web as we speak. I agree Obama has bigger problems than what I tried to analyze. If the pathetic pawns report this properly Obama will be lucky to receive 35% of the vote. Only the radicals in his party would still consider him a viable candidate. Exit Question: Is this Obama's diplomacy he always talks about?

misanthropicus said...

Self-destruction, and I love it - and I still, stubbernly believe that Glibama's true, radical base is much smaller than the one fawned about by the media.

Anonymous said...

According to Fox News, the rumors are that Obama only pulled in around $17 million for the month of August - if true, this is a HUGE drop from the month before, where he pulled in around $50 million.

I bet he's regretting not taking the public financing right about now.

Anonymous said...

"If we see him in Connecticut or New Jersey it will all be over."......

MIDDLETOWN,NJ — Scores of deep-pocketed Barack Obama supporters paid hundreds of thousands of dollars to party with the Democratic Party presidential nominee along the banks of the Navesink River on Friday.
www.app.com