Saturday, September 6, 2008

Interesting Choices For Post Convention Campaigning

There is an old saying in politics that says you can tell the state of an election by the States the candidates are campaigning in. The candidates have tendency to visit states they believe are battleground states they can win in November. I find it interesting that McCain has visited 4 States since his convention and two of them voted for John Kerry. I also find it interesting the Obama has visited three Sates; two of which voted for John Kerry. So out of the seven Sates visited post convention four of them voted for John Kerry in 2004 and three voted for George Bush.

What does this tells us? Well it tells us that Obama is in trouble. Obama visited Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. George Bush won a very hotly contested Ohio but Pennsylvania and Michigan have become reliable democratic. Neither of these Sates have voted for a Republican since 1992. That is sixteen years that these have been reliable states for the democrats and really have not been all the close. Ohio has a history of voting with the winning ticket. So Ohio is a typical swing state. McCain on the other hand immediately traveled to Wisconsin, Michigan, Colorado, and New Mexico. Two of these States voted for John Kerry. Wisconsin hasn't voted for a Republican since 1984. Michigan hasn't voted for a Republican since 1988. Colorado has been a reliable Republican State with the exception of 1992. New Mexico voted for Bush in 2004 but was Blue Prior to that during the Clinton/Gore era.

None of this bodes well for Obama. If Obama can't close the deal in Michigan and Pennsylvania he will be unable to continue campaigning in Western States. If he pulls out of Colorado or New Mexico they will stay red. If Obama must stay in high cost areas like Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvannia; McCain will be able to stay on the offensive and turn States like Minnesota and Wisconsin. These are easier States to campaign in and will be energized by the progressive middle class appeal of McCain and Palin.

We can tell a lot by where the candidates campaign. But if the candidates stay focused on the States where they are now Obama is in serious trouble. In a Democratic year there should be no reason for Obama to be camped out in reliable Democratic States like Michigan and Pennsylvania. If this continues the map from 2004 will not in Obama's direction. It looks as if the 50 State campaign promise is already history. SO far Obama has made this a campaign for three States and Obama must win all three. McCain could lose Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania if he can maintain Colorado and New Mexico and pick up Wisconsin and Minnesota. There are other States out there and time will tell but right now this is a campaign where Obama is defending and McCain is on offense.

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