Sunday, July 13, 2008

McCain In Good Position; Obama Not So Good

Most polls show Obama has a slight lead over McCain in the general election. Obama is enjoying a 3-6 point lead in most polls. However there is some disturbing news. McCain is running better than Obama with independents. McCain is running better with his party than is Obama with his party. McCain ran a centrist primary campaign while Obama ran a far left primary campaign. McCain wrapped up the nomination in March while Obama was unable to secure the presumptive nominee status until JUN. McCain is able to stay moderate while Obama has lurched toward the middle.

Obama received the proverbial bounce after securing the nomination. According to Rasmussen Obama and McCain were tied at 46% each just before Obama secured the nomination. However, within a week of 03 JUN when Hillary suspended her campaign Obama enjoyed an 8 point lead (47-39). Newsweek polled the public and reported Obama with a 15 point lead towards the end of JUN. A few days later the LA Times had a similar poll showing Obama with a 12 point lead. Yet yesterday and today Rasmussen is showing Obama and McCain tied at 43%. When leaners are considered McCain and Obama are again tied at 46%. The bounce enjoyed by Obama has evaporated.

Most analysis of the State by State polling show Obama with a slight lead. However, this gives Ohio to Obama which is sure to be a battleground to the end. It also gives Pennsylvania, Michigan and New Hampshire to Obama. All three of these states will also be serious battleground. McCain does well with independents which will create problems for Obama in New Hampshire. In Michigan, the DNC disenfranchised many voters and told the voters their votes would not count. Obama did not campaign there for the primary and this will certainly make it a difficult Kerry State for Obama to hold. Pennsylvania has had ethics, corruption, and legal issues with their Democratic party leaders. Twelve were recently brought up on corruption charges. Like 2006 in Ohio these corruption scandals do not bode well for the party in power. It could be a difficult state for democrats and Obama during the election.

This started as a banner year for democrats. President Bush has dismal approval ratings. The Republicans have similar dismal approval ratings. Generic Democrats are out polling generic Republicans by 10-15 points. Yet in the presidential race Obama averages a 4 point lead over McCain.

None of this polling data bodes well for Obama. Historically, undecideds move towards the experienced candidate. Late deciders move towards the candidate with the best foreign policy credentials and right now that candidate is John McCain. The last two Democratic candidates to be elected to the presidency enjoyed 20-30 point leads on Labor day. President Carter enjoyed a 31 point lead and won by a mere 1 percent. President Clinton enjoyed a 22 point lead and won by 6 percent.

Obama has been unable to unify the democratic party. Obama continues to alienate the women voters by telling them to get over it. Obama has alienated his liberal far left base by shamelessly taking new positions that are to the right of John McCain. Obama can not win by acting like a moderate Republican. John McCain is receiving 85% support from Republicans while Obama is only receiving 80% support of Democrats. Obama has alienated the Jewish vote. Obama receives 60% of the Jewish vote but usually the democratic candidate receives 80% or higher of the Jewish vote. Obama is in a tight race in New Jersey. The Republicans have placed a strong contender in the senate race with Frank Lautenberg. Should Zimmerman give Lautenberg a race and perhaps pull an upset Obama will be in serious trouble.

Yes it is true John McCain may be losing currently but the polls are showing he is in good position. The 2008 election cycle was supposed to be a democratic landslide. However, with Congressional approvals ratings in the single digits and Obama not having the ability to close the deal with Democrats the Republicans have a chance to keep close.

John McCain has an Economic plan that will spur economic growth. Obama has a plan that will stifle small businesses. John McCain has an energy plan that will reduce energy costs today and help spur economic activity. Obama offers an energy plan that increases our energy costs that will further drain the economy. John McCain wants to finish the Iraq mission. Obama wants to surrender all gains made in Iraq and pray the terrorists leave us alone. I believe it will be a close election that goes to the wire but McCain is currently in good position to pull off the upset.

1 comment:

Cat in NJ said...

Thanks for clearly written, factual reports on these issues. Will check in often!