Sunday, June 22, 2008

Newsweek Poll Skewed Hard Left

Late last week Newsweek published a poll that showed Obama with a 15% lead (51-36). It came at the end of the week and seemed to allow Obama momentum. Many have questioned the validity of this poll. I have investigated the polling data and find that perhaps the reason for the outlier poll is methodology.

In Newsweek's polling methodology there were 25.7% Republican, 36.1 % Democrat, and 34% independents. Additionally, only 22% of the respondents backed Hillary Clinton. I see these numbers as a problem in methodology. First of all, I do not believe there are 10% more Democrats than Republicans. That number is certainly only 7 or 8% difference. Most believe that the voting electorate is made up of 28-30% Republican, 30-33% Democrat 35-40% independents. Independents are certainly the biggest makeup of the electorate. Independents have registered in record numbers this year. Additionally, many democrats across web land have renounced the membership to their party since the nomination process as a result of disenfranchised Hillary voters and voters feeling left out of the process in Michigan and Florida.

What this means is that the sample was skewed hard left. In the grand scheme of things this means the poll is less than accurate and paints a much better picture for Obama than is really the case. Anti-Obama rhetoric is growing louder by the day. It is easy to see that Obama is losing traction and at a minimum is not gaining anymore followers. The talk of the internet is "buyers remorse". The gaffe machine is losing support amongst evangelicals even though earlier reports thought Obama may garner 36-40% of evangelicals. There is no doubt the hearts of the electorate are hardening against Obama. The drumbeat is getting louder and lines are beginning to form. Perhaps Newsweek sensed this building wall against Obama and tried to push a skewed poll in an effort to disguise serious problems in the Obama campaign.

It certainly appears that opposition to Obama is getting louder if not stronger. This outlier poll by Newsweek in all likelihood due to hard left skewing of the respondents. This is usually not a good methodology to provide an accurate picture of the race at hand. I believe the race is much closer than 15%. I believe the race is closer to the 5-7 points in other polls. This also coincides with the electoral projections and state by state polling. If Obama was truly winning by 15% McCain would be lucky to have 100 electoral votes. Right now most polls show McCain garnering 170 electoral votes. I would say put this poll outside the box and considered garbage in garbage out.

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