Sunday, May 11, 2008

The Coronation

The main stream media has proclaimed the democratic nomination process to be over. They have crowned Barack Obama the winner. Now neither Hillary nor Obama has the requisite 2025 delegates and neither is able to reach the magic number without the super delegates but alas the press has spoken and Barack has been anointed. In fact Obama has spoken and said he will declare victory on 20 MAY 2008.

It is true Barack probably has an insurmountable pledged delegate lead. Yes it is true Obama currently leads in the popular votes cast. In fact in every describable way Barack is in the lead. Yet when the next states in the primary cycle vote the anointed one will probably lose by 30-40 percent. In West Virginia, the latest poll shows Obama down by 43 points (66%-23%). West Virginia is not the home State of Hillary nor is it the adopted Hillary State. Yet Obama the crowned victor is down by 43 points. In a close primary election cycle I could understand Obama losing a state this late in the game but not by 43 points. On May 13, Obama will be a big loser. On May 20, Kentucky and Oregon will vote. Obama is again down big in Kentucky. The latest poll shows him trailing by 34 points. Again Kentucky is not the home or adopted State of Hillary. Also, Oregon will vote on May 20. Currently Obama is in lead with polls showing a modest (by comparison) 12 point lead for Obama. Of course the 12 point lead could evaporate after a humiliating 40 point loss in West Virginia.

After these three states there are three more primaries scheduled for Montana, South Dakota, and Puerto Rico. What if the crown Prince happened to lose all six of these States? Would Hillary not have a right to claim she has the momentum and should be the victor? I have never seen a nominee lose a state primary by over thirty points. This should be humiliating. Maybe Obama should be out trying to sell his ideas in States left to vote rather than taking vacation with a non nonchalant attitude. Obama figures he has done enough to claim the democratic nomination. He does not care that he is going to lose half of the remaining primaries by 30 or more points. How will the lack of concern for Michigan, Florida, and the remaining six primaries play out in the general election.

We need to ask ourselves what strength is there in a candidate that loses by 30-40 points in the last primaries prior to the general? What strength does Obama really have? Will Obama be able to recover from these humiliating defeats? Will the democrats really crown an inexperienced candidate that is big on rhetoric but little on details? Stayed tuned because this is about to get interesting. If Obama becomes the nominee will he win or will McCain ultimately prevail?

No comments: