Friday, May 23, 2008

Building a Losing Coalition

According to the pundits Obama has created a new coalition of voters. This new coalition paved the way to the possible nomination and is supposedly unbeatable. The daily kos fawns over Obama and preach that Obama's 50 state approach with this new coalition will break the backs of the republicans and lead to a lasting government ruled and controlled by democrats. This new coalition was strong enough to place Obama close to the nomination but will it win in November.

First we have to look at what the coalition is in the first place. A large portion of the Obama followers are young. This is a new group of possible democratic voters and seems to be a solid group of disgruntled Americans ready to vote for the eloquent one. The problem with this voter is that they are unpredictable. They may or may not show up on election day. Historically, the younger voters do not show up. Not since JFK has there been a large unexpected turnout from the younger voters. The next part of the Obama coalition is the affluent democratic voters. The George Soros type are firmly behind Obama. The eloquent One's Marxist viewpoints closely resemble their own. The problem here is that they were going to vote for the democratic nominee whoever that was. It would not have mattered who the democrats chose these liberal marxist will always vote for the democrat because they believe any democrat is better than any republican. The last big faction in the Obama coalition is the African American voter. Again just like the affluent democrats the African Americans were going to vote for the democratic nominee at a clip of 90-95%. So really what is new in this coalition? It is younger generation voter. It is true they are coming out in large numbers right now but will it be enough to carry Obama across the finish line.

To answer that we must look at the rest of the typical democratic voters. The blue collar union type workers have resoundingly abandoned Obama and his false hope message. First Obama lost Ohio. Hillary took an eight point win from Ohio. In and of itself this is not that bad. However, considering Obama had just won 10 straight States during the nomination contests leading up to Ohio. The Eloquent One had plenty of time to win over democrats in a purple state like Ohio. Alas, Obama could not close the deal. Then Obama lost Pennsylvania by 9 points. This is another purple state with a huge number of blue collar type democrats. Again Obama could not close the deal. Finally, in the last couple of states with large blue collar type democrats Obama lost big time. West Virginia provided a 41 point loss and Kentucky provided a 35 point loss. This can be spun as Obama does not need KY and WV to win in the general. However, that is not the point. The point is that Obama has alienated the blue collar worker and will be unable to close the deal in November if they decide to either stay home or find another candidate to vote for. Next we look at the Jewish American community. This is another big democratic voting block. While it looks as though Obama will garner 60% of the Jewish vote this is nowhere near the 80% generally garnered by the democratic party.

There are two big constituencies of the democratic party that have either taken for granted. Many Hillary supporters have openly suggested they will not vote for Obama. In some instances polls have shown almost 50% of Hillary supporters will either stay home or vote for McCain. This is not a good sign for Obama and his reconciliation efforts.

Obama has bet his entire candidacy on the young voter at the expense of traditional "lunch box" democrats and the Jewish voters. I am not sure this coalition can stand with a historically underrepresented voter at the expense of normally consistent voting blocks. Yes it is true Obama may have just built himself a losing coalition.

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