Thursday, April 24, 2008

Fatally Flawed

The Democratic Party has a choice between two candidates that have weakened the chances of democrats gaining the White House. Both of these candidates have some serious work to do if they are to even stand a chance of being elected this fall. It is in the best interest of the Democratic Party for them to call this nomination process off and just anoint one of them as the nominee. Neither of the candidates can win the nomination on pledged delegates alone. Barack Obama would require 536 pledged delegates in order to get the magic 2025 delegates required to secure the nomination outright without the help of super delegates. Hillary Clinton would require 692 more pledged delegates. There are only 410 delegates left to be pledged to one candidate or the other. The bottom line is both candidates require super delegates to get over the top.

The candidates have split the Democratic voter. There are huge differences between the base of both candidates. Hillary wins the white male voter, the female voter, the 40 and over voter, the poorer voter, and the union voter. Barack wins the better educated voter, the African American voter, and the liberal elite voter. It is no wonder the nomination process has produced a race where neither candidate can win without the super delegate.

In the general these demographics will show up in the polls unless the party is able to end the nomination process and heal the party. If this goes on much longer the winner will not be able to get the voters from the other camp. These alienated voters will either stay home or vote for McCain out of spite. Hillary wins the Reagan Democrats. These democrats appear ready to return home and vote the democratic candidate. However, they may find it difficult to vote for Barack when he takes them so lightly. Today his campaign blew off the Reagan democrats and said they were not necessary for a win. An Obama campaign spokesman (Axelrod) said the Democrat party has been losing this voter steadily and that they were unimportant. With an attitude like that it is no wonder the Democrats have not won but three Presidential elections in the past 40 years. For Hillary's part she has alienated the young and the African American voter. The Democratic Party has won over 90% of the African American voter in recent elections. These elections have been relatively close suggesting the country was divided. If the democrats lose alienated African Americans voters they would be lucky to keep the race within ten points.

Yes both of these candidates are fatally flawed. Much of Obama's constituency would likely stay home if he is not the candidate. He has attracted new younger voters who are unreliable. These unreliable voters are apt to stay home if their candidate is not nominated. African Americans would feel disenfranchised if Obama is not nominated. Does anyone really believe they would come out for Hillary if they feel she stole the nomination from Barack? What about Hillary? Much of her constituency is filled with "lunch bucket" democrats ( also known as Reagan Democrats). Would they show up and vote for Obama? Obama and his campaign have ridiculed them and chastised them for believing in constitutional rights like the freedom to bear arms and the freedom of religion. Would they really vote for Barack after being called bitter? Would they really vote for Barack after his spokesman said they were unimportant?

The pundits can say the party will heal all they want but the truth of the matter is that the longer this process continues the more likely both candidates will be mortally wounded. The two constituencies will not mend fences and there is a potential landslide on the horizon. This is not 1992. The democratic party was united in its message back then. They wanted to beat Bush and beat Bush they did. This year the party is divided. The Democratic Party has taken what should have been a cake walk and turned it into a race. This is a race the Democrats will lose unless the super delegates anoint a winner in the near future. Hillary is broke and Obama has to spent what he has like a fool in order to maintain his minute lead in the delegate count. Both candidates will require primary money to cast McCain as the evil Bush clone and unite the party prior to the convention. If this nomination process continues past May 6th both candidates will be mortally wounded.

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