Saturday, March 22, 2008

Blue to Red

There has been much discussion on how Barack Obama will run a 50 State campaign in the general election. Markos Moulitsas and his far left daily kos web site has preached the liberal mantra and continually says the way to a permanent liberal stewardship of our government. The Liberals believe Barack is the answer to turn several red states blue. The left believes Obama can turn Virginia, Colorado, Ohio, Nevada, New Mexico, and West Virginia. These states alone represent 57 electoral votes. The assumption here is that Obama win maintain the blue states carried by John Kerry and add these States to the Blue column. This would provide Obama with over three hundred electoral votes and a victory margin considered a mandate.

However, a deeper look through the polls show a shocking story is developing. Many of the above listed States are indeed in play. But here is a list of Blue States that remain stubbornly in play. Polls from Pennsylvania show McCain winning in almost every recent poll over Obama. Pennsylvania is a large state that would more than make up for the potential loss of Ohio. A red/blue swap here and Obama mandate winning margin would be much closer resulting in a net gain with the above listed states of 36 Electoral College votes. Lets look at a deep blue state. Massachusetts has 12 electoral votes. A recent Survey USA poll shows Barack Obama and John McCain tied. This is an expensive state to advertise in and Obama could ill afford to have to tie up resources in a state that should be deep blue. Another Northeastern State that could pose problems for Obama is Connecticut. This is a State with 7 Electoral College votes. Both Massachusetts and Connecticut are deep blue States in the liberal northeast. If Obama is forced to use resources to shore up the Party base in the Northeast the flanks are open to attack. McCain is winning in Minnesota and could take those 10 votes while Obama is busy fighting for the Northeast. What about Wisconsin. This has been a blue state for the last few election cycles but it has been very close. While Obama is busy in the expensive Northeast McCain could make inroads in the less expensive Midwest. McCain could give away the six states Obama is looking at in his 50 state campaign and turn just three blue States in his favor (Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Minnesota) and Obama is toast. This analysis does not even include Michigan. Will Michigan remain blue. Michigan brought in the democrats to fix the economic woes of the state. However, Michigan’s economy still lags the US economy as a whole. The problems in Michigan run deep. Now the Democrats have decided to disenfranchise voters in Michigan and Florida. Both of these renegade states run primaries contrary to party rules. The Republicans allowed the primary but penalized half of their delegates. Seems in this case the punishment fit the crime. The democrats on the other hand implemented a death penalty. The Draconian democrats stripped both states of their delegates. Neither of these states will be represented in Denver.

The bottom line is that McCain is making inroads in deep blue states and Obama is making inroads in swing purple states. This is a major problem for the Democratic Party. The Democratic base is showing signs of splintering. One in five democratic Obama voters will vote for McCain if their democratic candidate does not win the nomination. How many more will just stay home?

I believe there will be more states in play this year then there have been in the past. The anti incumbency sentiment in the US may rattle the status quo. We may just be surprised by just how many states change from red to blue and blue to red. However, the Democratic Party must choose their nominee soon. The longer this spectacle goes on the stronger McCain will get. Just remember the longer this goes on the more divided the democrats will become. If this nominee process goes on and does not get decided prior to the Denver convention I believe there will be many more blue states changing color to red. A protracted convention fight may hand McCain a landslide victory and lead to a lasting Republican government. Or it may just lead to a third moderate party that appeals to middle America. So on second thought Hillary and Obama need to keep up the fight so that the middle will get the representation they so deeply desire.

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